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Maldives

Highlights

  • The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 220 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara during 4- 9 Dec
  • Between 26 Nov 2 Dec: up to 180 mm of rainfall was recorded in Batticaloa and Kurunegala districts on the 30th.
  • From 26 Nov 2 Dec: up to 36 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  • 1 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Contents and Links to Sections

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring
Date Rainfall
26th November Up to 30 mm in Colombo district; and up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi, Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Gampaha, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts.
27th   November Up to 50 mm in Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Badulla, Vavuniya, Mannar and Mullaitivu districts.
28th November Up to 70 mm in Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Matale, Badulla, Galle and Colombo districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Gampaha, Kalutara, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
29th November Up to 100 mm in Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 70 mm in Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara and Ratnapura districts; and up to 30 mm in rest of the island.
30th November Up to 180 mm in Kurunegala district; up to 160 mm in Anuradhapura and Matale districts; up to 100 mm in Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 70 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Batticaloa districts; and up to 50 mm in rest of the island.
1st December Up to 70 mm in Mannar and Puttalam districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in most parts of the island.
2nd December Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Badulla, Hambantota, Matara and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm in most parts of the island.
 
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 300-500 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 200-300 mm in Mullaitivu,Trincomalee, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 150-200 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and Hambantota districts. Above average rainfall up to 200-300 mm is shown for Anuradhapura, Matale, Trincomalee, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 100-200 mm in most parts of the island.
Image caption:- observed satellite rainfall of 1st and 2nd of December 2019Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Monthly Monitoring: During November – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle districts and southern regions of Polonnaruwa district; and up to 150 mm in Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Vavuniya district; up to 150 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and several regions of Mannar, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Puttalam, Kurunegala, and Polonnaruwa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.
Image caption:- The figure in the left shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month. The rainfall anomaly in the previous month is shown in the figure to the right. The brown color in the anomaly figure shows places which received less rainfall than the historical average while the green color shows places with above-average rainfall. Darker shades show higher magnitudes in rainfall.  Click Here - for maps in pdf.

Image caption:- Dekadal (10 Day) Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates.
Click Here - for maps in 





 

 Image caption: Weekly Average SST Anomalies. Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 

Predictions

 
14-day predictions
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 4th – 10th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; and up to 105-115 mm in Puttalam district.
From 11th – 17th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm in Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Anuradhapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

Image caption: NCEP GFS 1- 14 Day prediction. Click Here - for maps in pdf.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast
From 4th – 9th Dec: Total rainfall up to 220 mm is expected in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 150 mm is expected in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; and up to 100 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts.
Image caption: The total rainfall forecast from the IRI for the next six days is provided in figures below. The figure to the left shows the expectancy of heavy rainfall events during these six days while the figure to the right is the prediction of total rainfall amount during this period.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Pacific sea state: November 19, 2019 (Text Courtesy IRI)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE

1 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
 
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A summary for Sri Lanka of last weeks weather and climate, a review of the rainfall, temperature over land and sea, and a suite of predictions from 3 days, 7-14 days, monthly and seasonal for rainfall and temperature. Our summary is above and the links direct you to details.

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