- The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm of total rainfall in northern and eastern regions of the island during 20 – 25 Nov.
- Between 13 - 19 Nov: up to 70 mm of rainfall was recorded in Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Gampaha and Colombo districts on the 18th
- From 12 - 18 Nov: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Total Rainfall for the Past Week:
||Up to 30 mm in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara, Puttalam and Batticaloa districts.
||Up to 50 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.
||Up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 20 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle, Hambantota, Ampara and Mullaitivu districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.
||Up to 30 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Kegalle, Galle, Matara and Nuwara Eliya districts.
||Up to 70 mm in Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 60 mm in Kurunegala, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kegalle and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 30 mm in Vavuniya, Batticaloa and Matale districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Galle districts.
||Up to 50 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 30 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Galle and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Kalutara, Matara, Hambantota and Monaragala districts.
The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 50-75 mm in Anuradhapura, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle and Galle districts; and up to 25-50 mm in most parts of the island. Above-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo and southern regions of Kurunegala district. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Jaffna, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Kandy and Badulla districts; up to 25-50 mm in most parts of the island.
Image caption:- observed satellite rainfall of 18th and 19th of November 2019- Click Here - for maps in pdf.
During October – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 300 mm in Jaffna district; and up to 240 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.
Image caption:- The figure in the left shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month. The rainfall anomaly in the previous month is shown in the figure to the right. The brown color in the anomaly figure shows places which received less rainfall than the historical average while the green color shows places with above-average rainfall. Darker shades show higher magnitudes in rainfall. Click Here - for maps in pdf.
Image caption:- Dekadal (10 Day) Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates.
Image caption: Weekly Average SST Anomalies. Click Here - for maps in pdf.
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 20th – 26th Nov:
Image caption: NCEP GFS 1- 14 Day prediction. Click Here - for maps in pdf.
Weekly Rainfall Forecast
Total rainfall up to 125 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 85-95 mm in Jaffna, Trincomalee, Badulla, Monaragala, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 75-85 mm in Puttalam, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Kegalle and Hambantota districts.
From 27th Nov – 3rd Dec:
Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm Mannar district; and up to 115-125 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Galle, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, and Monaragala districts.
From 20th – 25h Nov:
Pacific sea state: October 19, 2019 (Text Courtesy IRI)
Total rainfall up to 100 mm is expected in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; and up to 75 mm in most parts of the island.
Image caption: The total rainfall forecast from the IRI for the next six days is provided in figures below. The figure to the left shows the expectancy of heavy rainfall events during these six days while the figure to the right is the prediction of total rainfall amount during this period.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.
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SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE
0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.