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Maldives

Highlights


• The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 150 mm of total rainfall in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts during 25 – 30 Sep.
• Between 17 - 24 Sep: up to 200 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Puttalam and Gampaha districts on the 23rd.
• From 17 – 23 Sep: up to 36 km/h, southwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
• Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.


Contents and Links to Sections

Monitoring


Weekly MonitoringOn September 17th, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, and Kurunegala districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Mannar, Vavuniya, Kandy, and Ratnapura districts.  On the 18th, Puttalam, Ratnapura, and Monaragala districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Jaffna, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha and Colombo, districts up to 20 mm. On the 19th, Galle district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 30 mm; and Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Monaragala, and Batticaloa districts up to 20 mm. On the 20th, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Ratnapura districts received up to 20 mm. On the 21sKandy and Badulla districts received up to 20 mm. On the 22nd, Galle and Matara districts received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 50 mm; Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Ampara, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts up to 30 mm; and Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy and Batticaloa districts up to 20 mm. On the 23rd, Puttalam and Gampaha districts received up to 200 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts up to 160 mm; Kegalle, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Ratnapura and Matara  district up to 80 mm; Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts up to 50 mm; Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar and Badulla districts up to 30 mm; and rest of the country up to 20 mm. On the 24th Gampaha district received up to 100 mm of rainfall; Colombo and Kalutara districts up to 70 mm; Kegalle district up to 60 mm; Puttalam, Kurunegala and Galle districts up to 50 mm; Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts up to 30 mm; and Hambantota and Badulla districts up to 20 mm.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 300-500 mm in Gampaha district; up to 200-300 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts; and up to 150-200 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts. Above-average rainfall up to 200-300 mm is shown for in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts; up to 100-200 mm Kurunegala, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 50-100 mm Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, and Hambantota districts.
Image caption:- observed satellite rainfall of 11th and 17th of September 2019Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Monthly Monitoring: During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Monaragala and Hambantota; and up to 120 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannat, Vavuniya, Ampara, and Batticaloa. Below-average rainfall conditions, up to 180 mm were experienced Trincomalee and most parts of Badulla district. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Ratnapura district; up to 500 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 300 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

 
Image caption:- The figure in the left shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month. The rainfall anomaly in the previous month is shown in the figure to the right. The brown color in the anomaly figure shows places which received less rainfall than the historical average while the green color shows places with above-average rainfall. Darker shades show higher magnitudes in rainfall.  Click Here - for maps in pdf.

Image caption:- Dekadal (10 Day) Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.






 
 Image caption: Weekly Average SST Anomalies. Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 

Predictions

 
14-day predictions
NOAA NCEP Models:

From 25th Sep – 1st Oct: Total rainfall more than  135 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm in Puttalam and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 95-105 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, and Batticaloa districts.

From 2nd – 8th Oct: Total rainfall up to 135 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 115-125 mm in Matara, Gampaha and Puttalam districts; and up to 95-105 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle and Hambantota districts.

Image caption: NCEP GFS 1- 14 Day prediction. Click Here - for maps in pdf.

IMD WRF & IRI Model Forecast:

25thof Sep: Not Available 
26th of Sep: Not Available

Weekly Rainfall Forecast
From 25th – 30th Sep: Total rainfall up to 150 mm is expected in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to 100 mm in Gampaha, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Ampara, Monaragala, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Matara, Galle, Kalutara and Colombo districts; and up to 75 mm in rest of the island.


Image caption: The total rainfall forecast from the IRI for the next six days is provided in figures below. The figure to the left shows the expectancy of heavy rainfall events during these six days while the figure to the right is the prediction of total rainfall amount during this period.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Pacific sea state: September 19, 2019 (Text Courtesy IRI)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September. Patterns in the key atmospheric variables are also showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter and into spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.
 
INDIAN OCEAN STATE

Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall of Sri Lanka


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A summary for Sri Lanka of last weeks weather and climate, a review of the rainfall, temperature over land and sea, and a suite of predictions from 3 days, 7-14 days, monthly and seasonal for rainfall and temperature. Our summary is above and the links direct you to details.

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