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Maldives

Highlights

  • The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala district during 6 – 11 Nov.
  • Between 29 Oct - 4 Nov: up to 210 mm of rainfall was recorded in Jaffna district on the 1st.
  • From 29 Oct - 4 Nov: up to 10 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island
  • 0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka


Contents and Links to Sections

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring
Date Rainfall
29th October Up to 70 mm in Hambantota district; up to 60 mm in Ampara and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Puttalam, Monaragala, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Kalutara, Badulla, Batticaloa, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
30th October Up to 175 mm in Kilinochchi district; up to 100 mm in Jaffna district; up to 70 mm in Mannar and Mullaitivu districts; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya district; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura and Colombo districts.
31st   October Up to 150 mm in Jaffna district; up to 60 mm in Mannar district; up to 30 mm in Puttalam and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts.
1st November Up to 210 mm in Jaffna districts; up to 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Mannar districts; and up to 20 mm Monaragala district.
2nd November Up to 100 mm in Gampaha district; up to 70 mm in Kegalle district; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Matale, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura and Nuwara Eliya districts.
3rd November Up to 60 mm in Colombo and Badulla districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kalutara and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratanapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
4th November Up to 20 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
 

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 70-100 mm in Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Matara, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; up to 50-75 mm in Jaffna, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Batticaloa districts. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Vavuniya, Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Kurunegala districts; up to 25-50 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Polonnaruwa and Ampra districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts.
 
Image caption:- observed satellite rainfall of 3rd and 4th of November 2019Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Monthly Monitoring:During October – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 300 mm in Jaffna district; and up to 240 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.
Image caption:- The figure in the left shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month. The rainfall anomaly in the previous month is shown in the figure to the right. The brown color in the anomaly figure shows places which received less rainfall than the historical average while the green color shows places with above-average rainfall. Darker shades show higher magnitudes in rainfall.  Click Here - for maps in pdf.

Image caption:- Dekadal (10 Day) Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates.
Click Here - for maps in 





 

 Image caption: Weekly Average SST Anomalies. Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 

Predictions

 
14-day predictions
NOAA NCEP Models:

From 6th – 12th Nov: Total rainfall more than 85 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 65-75 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 55-65 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
From 13th – 19th Nov: Total rainfall up to 115 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 85-95 mm Kegalle, Puttalam, Gampaha and Kurunegala districts; and up to 75-85 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.

Image caption: NCEP GFS 1- 14 Day prediction. Click Here - for maps in pdf.


Weekly Rainfall Forecast
From 6th – 11th Nov: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Ampara, Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts
Image caption: The total rainfall forecast from the IRI for the next six days is provided in figures below. The figure to the left shows the expectancy of heavy rainfall events during these six days while the figure to the right is the prediction of total rainfall amount during this period.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Pacific sea state: October 18, 2019 (Text Courtesy IRI)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in some atmospheric variables show weak El Niño conditions, but this is attributed to intraseasonal variability and the collective assessment is for ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE

0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
 
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A summary for Sri Lanka of last weeks weather and climate, a review of the rainfall, temperature over land and sea, and a suite of predictions from 3 days, 7-14 days, monthly and seasonal for rainfall and temperature. Our summary is above and the links direct you to details.

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