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Maldives

Highlights

  • The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in central and western regions of the island during 13 – 18 Nov.
  • Between 5 - 11 Nov: up to 120 mm of rainfall was recorded in Matara district on the 9th
  • From 5 - 11 Nov: up to 10 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island
  • 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

Contents and Links to Sections

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring
5th November Up to 20 mm in Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, and Badulla districts.
6th November No Rainfall.
7th   November Up to 60 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 50 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts.
8th November Up to 30 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 20 mm in Batticaloa, Puttalam, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.
9th November Up to 120 mm in Matara district; up to 70 mm in Hambantota district; up to 60 mm in Nuwara Eliya district; up to 50 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Kandy, Ampara, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo districts.
10th November Up to 70 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Kalutara districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Gampaha, Kandy, and Nuwara Eliya districts.
11th November Up to 50 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha and Kalutara districts; and up to 20 mm in Galle, and Monaragla districts.
 

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 75-100 mm in Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 50-75 mm in Anuradhapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Badulla, and Monaragala districts. Above-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Galle and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall, up to 50-100 mm is shown for Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 25-50 mm in rest of the island.
 
Image caption:- observed satellite rainfall of 11th and 12th of November 2019Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Monthly Monitoring: During October – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 300 mm in Jaffna district; and up to 240 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.
Image caption:- The figure in the left shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month. The rainfall anomaly in the previous month is shown in the figure to the right. The brown color in the anomaly figure shows places which received less rainfall than the historical average while the green color shows places with above-average rainfall. Darker shades show higher magnitudes in rainfall.  Click Here - for maps in pdf.

Image caption:- Dekadal (10 Day) Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates.
Click Here - for maps in 





 

 Image caption: Weekly Average SST Anomalies. Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 

Predictions

 
14-day predictions
NOAA NCEP Models:

From 13th – 19th Nov: Total rainfall more than 95 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 75-85 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 65-75 mm in Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
From 20th – 26th Nov: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar and Puttalam districts; up to 125-135 mm Kurunegala and Batticaloa districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Ratnapura, Galle, and Ampara districts.

Image caption: NCEP GFS 1- 14 Day prediction. Click Here - for maps in pdf.


Weekly Rainfall Forecast
From 13th – 18th Nov: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 50 mm in most parts of the island.
Image caption: The total rainfall forecast from the IRI for the next six days is provided in figures below. The figure to the left shows the expectancy of heavy rainfall events during these six days while the figure to the right is the prediction of total rainfall amount during this period.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Pacific sea state: October 18, 2019 (Text Courtesy IRI)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in some atmospheric variables show weak El Niño conditions, but this is attributed to intraseasonal variability and the collective assessment is for ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter, and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE

0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days
 
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A summary for Sri Lanka of last weeks weather and climate, a review of the rainfall, temperature over land and sea, and a suite of predictions from 3 days, 7-14 days, monthly and seasonal for rainfall and temperature. Our summary is above and the links direct you to details.

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