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Maldives

Highlights

  • The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 200 mm of total rainfall in northern and eastern regions of the island during 25 Nov - 2 Dec
  • Between 20 - 25 Nov: up to 120 mm of rainfall was recorded in Batticaloa and Ampara districts on the 25th.
  • From 19 - 25 Nov: up to 36 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island
  • 1 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Contents and Links to Sections

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring
 
Date Rainfall
20th November Up to 50 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 30 mm in Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
21st   November Up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts; up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Colombo, Kalutara and Ampara districts.
22nd November Up to 70 mm in Kalutara district; up to 60 mm in Colombo and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Galle district; up to 30 mm in Kegalle, Badulla, Ampara, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Matara districts; up to 20 mm in Mannar, Gampaha,Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.
23rd November Up to 70 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Gampaha, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee, Matale, Kandy Puttalam and Colombo districts; and up to 20 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
24th November Up to 70 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; up to 60 mm in Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Mannar, Badulla, Monaragla and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Matale districts; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Ratnapura, Matara and Trincomalee districts.
25th November Up to 120 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 70 mm in Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 60 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kandy and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
 
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75-100 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 50-75 mm in Mannar, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts. Above-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50-100 mm in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 25-50 mm in Monaragala district. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Anuradhapura, Kurunegala and Kandy districts; up to 25-50 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kegalle, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts.
Image caption:- observed satellite rainfall of 24th and 25th of November 2019Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Monthly Monitoring: During October – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 300 mm in Jaffna district; and up to 240 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.
Image caption:- The figure in the left shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month. The rainfall anomaly in the previous month is shown in the figure to the right. The brown color in the anomaly figure shows places which received less rainfall than the historical average while the green color shows places with above-average rainfall. Darker shades show higher magnitudes in rainfall.  Click Here - for maps in pdf.

Image caption:- Dekadal (10 Day) Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates.
Click Here - for maps in 





 

 Image caption: Weekly Average SST Anomalies. Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 

Predictions

 
14-day predictions
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 27th Nov – 3rd Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Kandy, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; and up to 105-115 mm in Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts.
From 4th – 10th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Monaragala, Hambantota, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Matara districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Galle and Kegalle districts.


Image caption: NCEP GFS 1- 14 Day prediction. Click Here - for maps in pdf.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast
From 27th Nov 2nd Dec: Total rainfall up to 200 mm is expected in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; up to 150 mm is expected in Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; and up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Hambantota districts.
Image caption: The total rainfall forecast from the IRI for the next six days is provided in figures below. The figure to the left shows the expectancy of heavy rainfall events during these six days while the figure to the right is the prediction of total rainfall amount during this period.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Pacific sea state: October 19, 2019 (Text Courtesy IRI)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE

1 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days.
 
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A summary for Sri Lanka of last weeks weather and climate, a review of the rainfall, temperature over land and sea, and a suite of predictions from 3 days, 7-14 days, monthly and seasonal for rainfall and temperature. Our summary is above and the links direct you to details.

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