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Maldives

Highlights

  • The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Jaffna district during 23 – 28 Oct.
  • Between 23 – 28 Oct: up to 100 mm of rainfall was recorded in Batticaloa district on the 28th
  • From 22 – 28 Oct: up to 18 km/h, southeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island
  • 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka


Contents and Links to Sections

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring
Date Rainfall
23rd October Up to 70 mm in Jaffna district; up to 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Batticaloa, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Kandy, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
24th October Up to 60 mm in Galle district; up to 50 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 30 mm in Kalutara, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 20 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Ampara, Kandy, Badulla, Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo districts.
25th   October Up to 30 mm in Mullaitivu district; and up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts.
26th October Up to 70 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Badulla district; and up to 20 mm Trincomalee, Matale, and Kandy districts.
27th October Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 60 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kuruegala, Matale, Kandy, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 30 mm in Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm Gampaha district.
28th October Up to 100 mm in Batticaloa district; up to 70 mm in Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Ampara, Monaragala, Hambantota and Galle districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Badulla and Kalutara districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
 

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 150-200 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Hambantota and Matara districts; up to 100-150 mm in Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 75-100 mm in Kurunegala and Kegalle. Above-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for Batticaloa, Ampara, Hambantota and Monaragala district; up to 50-100 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara and Galle districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Kalutara, Kandy, Matale, Mannar and eastern regions of Anuradhapura district. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Gampaha, Kurunegala, Puttalam and western regions of Anuradhapura district; and up to 10-25 mm in Colombo and Kegalle districts.
 
Image caption:- observed satellite rainfall of 21st and 22nd of October 2019Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Monthly Monitoring:During September –Above average rainfall conditions up to 450 mm were experienced by Gampaha district; up to 360 mm in Puttalam, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Badulla, Ampara, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 120 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 500 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; up to 300 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Matale, Ampara and Batticaloa districts.
Image caption:- The figure in the left shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month. The rainfall anomaly in the previous month is shown in the figure to the right. The brown color in the anomaly figure shows places which received less rainfall than the historical average while the green color shows places with above-average rainfall. Darker shades show higher magnitudes in rainfall.  Click Here - for maps in pdf.

Image caption:- Dekadal (10 Day) Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.






 
 Image caption: Weekly Average SST Anomalies. Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 

Predictions

 
14-day predictions
NOAA NCEP Models:

From 30th Oct – 5th Nov: Total rainfall more than 115 mm in Puttalam and Kurunegala districts; up to 85-95 mm in Mannar, Kilinochchi, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matale and Ratnapura districts; and up to 75-85 mm in Jaffna, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
From 6th – 12th Nov: Total rainfall more than 105 mm in Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 85-95 mm Gampaha, Kegalle, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts; and up to 65-75 mm in Matale, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts



Image caption: NCEP GFS 1- 14 Day prediction. Click Here - for maps in pdf.


Weekly Rainfall Forecast
From 30th Oct – 4th Nov: Total rainfall up to 150 mm is expected in Badulla district; up to 100 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Monaragala districts; up to 75 mm in Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Hambantota, Ampara, Batticaloa and Jaffna districts; and up to 50 mm in rest of the island.

Image caption: The total rainfall forecast from the IRI for the next six days is provided in figures below. The figure to the left shows the expectancy of heavy rainfall events during these six days while the figure to the right is the prediction of total rainfall amount during this period.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Pacific sea state: October 18, 2019 (Text Courtesy IRI)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in some atmospheric variables show weak El Niño conditions, but this is attributed to intraseasonal variability and the collective assessment is for ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE

0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall suppress in the following 10 days.
 
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A summary for Sri Lanka of last weeks weather and climate, a review of the rainfall, temperature over land and sea, and a suite of predictions from 3 days, 7-14 days, monthly and seasonal for rainfall and temperature. Our summary is above and the links direct you to details.

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