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Maldives

Highlights

  • The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Kalutara and Galle districts during 18 – 23 Sep.
  • Between 10 - 15 Sep: up to 140 mm of rainfalls were recorded Hambantota district on the 14th.
  • From 9 – 15 Sep: up to 54 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  • 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.


Contents and Links to Sections

Monitoring


Weekly MonitoringOn September 10th, Galle and Matara districts received up to 70 mm of rainfall; Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts received up to 30 mm; and Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.  On the 11th, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts received up to 70 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo and Matara districts up to 60 mm; Puttalam, Hambantota, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 50 mm; Nuwara Eliya, Ampara, Kandy and Kegalle districts up to 30 mm; and Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Matale districts up to 20 mm. On the 12th, Jaffna, Batticaloa, and Ampara districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; and Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kandy, and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On the 13th, Badulla and Ampara districts received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Jaffna and Mullaitivu districts up to 50 mm; Kilinochchi, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Monaragala, Matale and Kandy districts up to 30 mm; and Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts up to 20 mm. On the 14th, Hambantota district received up to 140 mm of rainfall; Monaragala district up to 100 mm; Matara district up to 90 mm; Ratnapura, Badulla, Galle and Ampara districts up to 60 mm; Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Colombo districts up to 50 mm; Gampaha, Trincomalee and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 30 mm; and Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Kandy districts up to 20 mm. On the 15th Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts received up to 120 mm of rainfall; Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kegalle and Galle districts up to 70 mm; Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Matara districts up to 60 mm; Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Hambantota districts up to 50 mm; Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts up to 30 mm; and Polonnaruwa, Matale and Ampara districts up to 20 mm.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week:  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 200-300 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Ratnapura districts; up to 150-200 mm Gampaha, Hambantota, and Monaragala districts; and up to 100-150 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Badulla, and Ampara districts. Above-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matra, Hambantota, and Monaragala districts; and up to 50-100 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ampara districts.
Image caption:- observed satellite rainfall of 11th and 17th of September 2019Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Monthly Monitoring: :During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Monaragala and Hambantota; and up to 120 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannat, Vavuniya, Ampara and Batticaloa. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 180 mm were experienced Trincomalee and most parts of Badulla district. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Ratnapura district; up to 500 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 300 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
 
Image caption:- The figure in the left shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month. The rainfall anomaly in the previous month is shown in the figure to the right. The brown color in the anomaly figure shows places which received less rainfall than the historical average while the green color shows places with above-average rainfall. Darker shades show higher magnitudes in rainfall.  Click Here - for maps in pdf.

Image caption:- Dekadal (10 Day) Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.






 
 Image caption: Weekly Average SST Anomalies. Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 

Predictions

 
14-day predictions
NOAA NCEP Models:

 From 18th – 24th Sep: Total rainfall up to 135 mm in Galle, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Hambantota district; and up to 85-95 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
From 25th Sep – 1st Oct: Total rainfall up to 105 mm in Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 85-95 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 65-75 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Badulla and Monaragala districts.


Image caption: NCEP GFS 1- 14 Day prediction. Click Here - for maps in pdf.

IMD WRF & IRI Model Forecast:

18thof Sep: Not Available 
19th of Sep: Not Available

Weekly Rainfall Forecast
 
From 18th – 23rd Sep: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 50 mm in most parts of the island.


Image caption: The total rainfall forecast from the IRI for the next six days is provided in figures below. The figure to the left shows the expectancy of heavy rainfall events during these six days while the figure to the right is the prediction of total rainfall amount during this period.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Pacific sea state: September 12, 2019 (Text Courtesy IRI)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during August. Patterns in the key atmospheric variables are also showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.
 
INDIAN OCEAN STATE

0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall not have an impact in the rainfall of Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days.


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A summary for Sri Lanka of last weeks weather and climate, a review of the rainfall, temperature over land and sea, and a suite of predictions from 3 days, 7-14 days, monthly and seasonal for rainfall and temperature. Our summary is above and the links direct you to details.

Note, while we provide a synthesis from reputed outlets and conduct validation, this is a research product developed and ope rationalized over the last decade for water management by the MASL years and it is experimental. Please add this email address and fectsl@gmail.com to your contact list. Background on this report is available (Click Here). If you wish to subscribe Click Here

 
 
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