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Maldives

Highlights

  • The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm of total rainfall in central regions during 16 – 21 Oct.
  • Between 9 – 14 Oct: up to 140 mm of daily rainfalls were recorded in Ratnapura and Kurunegala districts on the 11th and 13th respectively.
  • From 8 – 14 Oct: up to 5 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  • 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.


Contents and Links to Sections

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring
9th October Up to 70 mm in Mannar and Vavuniya districts; up to 60 mm in Mullaitivu and Kurunegala districts; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Badulla districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee, Kandy and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Ampara districts.
10th October Up to 30 mm in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura and Matale districts.
11th October Up to 140 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 60 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; up to 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala and Matara districts.
12th   October Up to 50 mm in Badulla district; up to 30 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
13th October Up to 140 mm in Kurunegala district; up to 70 mm in Kandy district; up to 60 mm in Puttalam district; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Monaragala, Badulla, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee, district;  and up to 20 mm Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
14th October Up to 30 mm in Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
 

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 75-100 mm in Vavuniya, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle and Kandy districts; up to 50-75 mm in Kilinochchi, Matale, Matara and Hambantota districts; and 25-50 mm in most parts of the island. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Kurunegala, Vavuniya, Colombo, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and western regions of Anuradhapura district; up to 25-50 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Kandy districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kilinochchi and Mannar districts. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Polonnaruwa district; and up to 25-50 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara and eastern regions of Anuradhapura district.
 
Image caption:- observed satellite rainfall of 13th and 14th of October 2019Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Monthly Monitoring: During September – Above average rainfall conditions up to 450 mm were experienced by Gampaha district; up to 360 mm in Puttalam, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Badulla, Ampara, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 120 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 500 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; up to 300 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Matale, Ampara and Batticaloa districts.
 
Image caption:- The figure in the left shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month. The rainfall anomaly in the previous month is shown in the figure to the right. The brown color in the anomaly figure shows places which received less rainfall than the historical average while the green color shows places with above-average rainfall. Darker shades show higher magnitudes in rainfall.  Click Here - for maps in pdf.

Image caption:- Dekadal (10 Day) Satellite Derived Rainfall Estimates.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.






 
 Image caption: Weekly Average SST Anomalies. Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 

Predictions

 
14-day predictions
NOAA NCEP Models:

From 16th – 22nd Oct: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 115-25 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 95-105 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 85-95 mm in most parts of the island.
From 23rd – 29th Oct: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha and Ratnapura districts; up to 115-125 mm in Jaffna, Mannar, Galle and Matara districts; up to 105-115 mm in Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy and Hambantota districts; and up to 85-95 mm most parts of the island.


Image caption: NCEP GFS 1- 14 Day prediction. Click Here - for maps in pdf.


Weekly Rainfall Forecast
From 16th – 21st Oct: Total rainfall up to 150 mm is expected in Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 100 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kuruegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts; and up to 75 mm in rest of the island.

Image caption: The total rainfall forecast from the IRI for the next six days is provided in figures below. The figure to the left shows the expectancy of heavy rainfall events during these six days while the figure to the right is the prediction of total rainfall amount during this period.
Click Here - for maps in pdf.
 
Pacific sea state: October 10, 2019 (Text Courtesy IRI)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in most of the key atmospheric variables are also showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter and into spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

MJO STATE
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

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A summary for Sri Lanka of last weeks weather and climate, a review of the rainfall, temperature over land and sea, and a suite of predictions from 3 days, 7-14 days, monthly and seasonal for rainfall and temperature. Our summary is above and the links direct you to details.

Note, while we provide a synthesis from reputed outlets and conduct validation, this is a research product developed and ope rationalized over the last decade for water management by the MASL years and it is experimental. Please add this email address and fectsl@gmail.com to your contact list. Background on this report is available (Click Here). If you wish to subscribe Click Here

 
 
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