Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020
Editor's note: I figured that after the night we've just had there might be some demand for a relatively condensed take on the state of the presidential race and the Senate races that are still in without further ado, here's a special Election Night version of the Daily  Digest, which I may update tomorrow if I have time and key states still haven't been called yet. Some of you may have gotten this twice--I'm sending it to all three of my newsletter lists (the Civic Minute, the CV Daily Digest, and Last Week in Trump). 
The presidential race, as of 11:15 pm
Based on states that have already been called, Biden has 225 electoral votes to Trump's 213 according to the New York Times (I couldn't find an official AP count on their website). 

The following states have yet to be called--likely swing states in bold:
  • Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), 56.5% Trump to 42.2% Biden with 69% of estimated votes counted.
  • Michigan (16 electoral votes), 53.0% Trump to 45.2% Biden with 65% of estimated votes counted.
  • Georgia (16 electoral votes), 50.6% Trump to 48.1% Biden with 91% of estimated votes counted.
  • North Carolina (15 electoral votes), 50.1% Trump to 48.7% Biden with 95% of estimated votes counted.
  • Arizona (11 electoral votes), almost certainly going to Biden.
  • Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), 51.1% Trump to 47.2% Biden with 78% of estimated votes counted.
  • Nevada (6 electoral votes), which is likely going to go to Trump.
  • Maine (4 electoral votes), 54.6% Biden to 42.3% Trump with 66% of estimated votes counted.
Using the New York Times' interactive forecasting tool, which is at the bottom of this page, Biden wins decisively if he picks up the following combos of states:
  • Pennsylvania and either Georgia, Michigan, or North Carolina.
  • Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine's 2nd Congressional district.
  • Georgia and either Michigan or North Carolina.
  • Michigan and North Carolina.
Here's how those five key states are looking (see here for the FiveThirtyEight guide to how each state counts its ballots):
  • Pennsylvania: Very much up in the air--mail-in ballots could continue to be counted through the end of the week or later before we know who's won. The final pre-Election Day FiveThirtyEight prediction here was that the state would be in Trump's column on Election Night before experiencing a blue shift towards Biden in the coming days.
  • Michigan: Similar to Pennsylvania--counting all of the absentee ballots could take until Friday, and the vote is likely to shift towards Democrats as the week progresses, although it's unclear whether there are enough absentee ballots to give Biden the win.
  • Georgia: Earlier in the night the New York Times' election needles had Trump's chances in Georgia at over 80%, but after adjusting their methodology they now give Biden a 64% chance of winning the state (because of a huge batch of votes from Atlanta that weren't counted tonight). Definitive results were expected by the end of Election Night, but that hasn't turned out to be the case; the longest we'll likely need to wait will be Wednesday or Thursday. 
  • North Carolina: The New York Times' election needles heavily favor Trump to win in North Carolina, but the state allows absentee ballots to be received as late as November 12th, and late-arriving ballots will likely favor Biden.
  • Wisconsin: According to FiveThirtyEight we should know the winner here by Wednesday morning. 
It could still easily go either way, but this should give you a good sense of what to watch for in the coming days.
The Senate
It looks to me from the New York Times Senate map like the following flippable Senate races are still potentially in play (Democrats would need to net 4 seats to re-take control of the Senate if Biden loses, or 3 seats if he wins):
  • Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, both in Georgia.
  • Cal Cunningham in North Carolina.
  • Mark Kelly in Arizona.
As it stands, Democrats have flipped one Senate seat in Colorado (John Hickenlooper defeated Cory Gardner) and Republicans have flipped one seat in Alabama (Tommy Tuberville defeated Doug Jones), so the scorecard is still tied. Arizona is leaning towards a Democratic flip and Michigan is leaning towards a Republican flip, which would make the path to a Democratic Senate extremely narrow but not impossible.
Washington state
The Seattle Times has excellent overviews of the key races across the state here, and of all the legislative races here. Some highlights in contested races, though:
  • Denny Heck is way ahead for Lt. Governor; Kim Wyman has a narrow lead for Secretary of State; the sex ed referendum is passing 59 to 40; and Kim Schrier has a comfortable lead (54 - 46) in the 8th Congressional District.
  • In the state legislature, Ingrid Anderson is edging out Mark Mullet in the 5th by 49.7 to 48.4 (and her lead will likely grow in the coming days); David Hackney is handily defeating Zack Hudgins 61 - 36; T'wina Nobles is leading Steve O'Ban 51.7 to 48.1 in the 28th; Jamila Taylor and Jesse Johnson are both way ahead in the 30th; Liz Berry is way ahead of Sarah Reyneveld in the 36th (58 - 41); Kirsten Harris-Talley is leading Chukundi Salisbury in the 37th 67 - 32; Frank Chopp is leading Sherae Lascelles 67 - 33 in the 43rd; and April Berg is winning comfortably in the 44th, 54 - 46.
Ending on a high note
Here's a duet of Willie Nelson and Karen O singing Under Pressure.

Sol Villarreal
Broker, Windermere Real Estate
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