Models constructed by HaystaqDNA utilizing L2 voter/consumer/donor data allow campaigns to target individuals based on issue, behavior and candidate preference. Below is a look at several different candidate preferences and behaviors.
Even among supporters of each of the candidates there has been an enthusiasm gap for both candidates. Based on recommendations from consultants and political scientists we chose to examine this gap. Based on recommendations from consultants and political scientists we chose to examine this gap by determining voters’ views of Hillary Clinton’s trustworthiness and their comfort level supporting Donald Trump.
Republican comfort level supporting Donald Trump
Democratic trust level for Hillary Clinton
Battleground states with voters likely to split tickets
Battleground states with voters likely to not vote past top of the ticket
Top battleground states and the ratio of Republican voters who are likely to be "proud" vs. "uncomfortable" supporting Donald Trump in each state:
Similar to the Trump/GOP map above the national map shows a lot of suburban Democrats who are less likely to trust Hillary Clinton.
Top Five Battleground States with Voters Prone to Ticket Splitting (Voters who vote for one party for President and another party's candidate(s) for positions down the ballot)(by %)
1. ME 9.8% 86,315 voters (42.9% R // 31.4% NP // 23.0% D)
2. CO 9.4% 269,246 voters (40.8% R // 28.2% NP // 29.5% D)
3. VA 9.4% 441,235 voters (51.6% R // 37.6% D // 10.6% NP)
4. GA 9.4% 482,192 voters (60.4% R // 20.8% NP // 18.6% D)
5. PA 9.3% 693,542 voters (56% R // 36.6% D // 4.9% NP)
Top Five Battleground States for Likely Ballot Dropoff (Voters who vote for the top of the ticket and don't vote in down ballot contests)(by %)
1. ME 4.9% 31,281 voters (54.5% D // 31.5% R)
2. VA 4.8% 227,465 voters (71.5% D // 21.8% R)
3. PA 4.7% 354,298 voters (73.9% D // 23.5% R)
4. GA 4.7% 241,235 voters (75% NP // 18.2% D // 6.1% R)
5. TX 4.6% 590.050 voters (85% D // 10% R)
Please feel free to use any images or data but please credit "L2" or where noted "L2/HaystaqDNA" and email me or call 646-457-1439 with any questions or special requests. If you'd like VoterMapping for yourself, email and I'll set you up at no charge.
For over 40 years L2 has been the most trusted source for enhanced voter, consumer and modeled issue data. L2's national voter file remains the most accurate and frequently updated in the marketplace and contains the largest number of detailed voter file segments for traditional and digital targeting. As a non-partisan provider L2 is able to tap powerful solutions including modeled issue data from HaystaqDNA. The HaystaqDNA modeled issue segments give users a detailed view of all voters regardless of party affiliation. L2 also provides party affiliation in all 50 states by modeling party ID for voters in states without party based registration. In addition to voters, L2 maintains a powerful 265 million+ adult consumer file.
Contact: Paul Westcott Office: 646-457-1439 Email: paul.westcott@L2political.com