Highlights
Monitored: During April, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During last year the northern and southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm and the central Islands have an excess of 300 mm of rainfall compared to the average. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 0.5 0C above normal.
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts daily rainfall up to 20 mm in the southern islands and up to 10 mm in central and northern islands during 6th-7th May. From 8th-10th, 40 mm of daily rainfall is expected in the southern and central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the southern islands next week.
Contents and Links to Sections
1.Climatology
Monthly Climatology: In May, average rainfall is about 200 mm in the entire country. The wind direction is westerly and the speed is higher than in April. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change.
2.Monitoring
Daily Monitoring:
| Date |
Rainfall |
| 17th – 20th April |
No Rainfall. |
| 21st April |
Up to 50 mm in the southern islands; up to 30 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands. |
| 22nd April |
Up to 50 mm in the central islands; up to 30 mm in southern islands; and up to 20 mm in northern islands. |
| 23rd April |
Up to 50 mm in the southern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands. |
| 24th April |
Up to 100 mm in the northern islands; up to 90 mm in central islands; and up to 30 mm in southern islands. |
| 25th April |
Up to 10 mm in the southern islands. |
| 26th April |
No Rainfall. |
| 27th April |
Up to 50 mm in the southern islands; and up to 20 mm in central islands. |
| 28th April |
Up to 90 mm in the central islands; up to 50 mm in southern islands; and up to 20 mm in northern islands. |
| 29th April |
Up to 30 mm in the northern islands. |
| 30th April |
No Rainfall. |
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:
In April, the whole country received normal rainfall. The southern islands received up to 200 mm of total rainfall; and central and southern islands up to 100 mm.
.
Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
3.Predictions
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly Rainfall Forecast: According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the southern islands and up to 10 mm in central and northern islands during 6 th-7 th May.From 8 th-10 th, 40 mm of daily rainfall is expected in the southern and central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
Image caption:- Left: Total 6-day precipitation forecast
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - April 20, 2020)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño during mid-April. However, patterns in atmospheric variables were mainly neutral. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during the rest of spring, cooling to average by summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for continuation of ENSO-neutral through fall.
 Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.
MJO INDEX
The MJO was significant in Phase 1 from Apr 13-20; in Phase 2 from Apr 21-24; and in Phase 3 from Apr 25-30. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.
Download Printable Report (Part1 - Summary)- Click Here
Download Printable Report (Part2 - Figures)- Click Here
|
