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Highlights

Monitored: During October, the whole country received rainfall above than is normal for the season. The Southern and Northern Islands have an excess of 650 mm and 150 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average respectively while the Central Islands experiencing average rainfall. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm.
 
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of daily rainfall in the central and southern islands on November 4th and 5th. On the 6th, rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. On the 7th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands.   Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the northern and central parts next week. 
     

Contents and Links to Sections

1.Climatology

Monthly Climatology:  In November, the whole country usually receives up to 200 mm rain. Wind is westerly. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. In January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Wind is north easterly.
Daily  Monitoring:
Date Rainfall
18th October Up to 30 mm in the northern and central islands.
19th October Up to 30 mm in the southern islands.
20th October Up to 30 mm in the northern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands.
21st - 22nd   October Up to 5 mm in the  northern islands.
23rd October Up to 30 mm in the northern islands.
24th October Up to 50 mm in the southern islands; and up to 10 mm in the northern islands.
25th October Up to 20 mm in the central and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
26th October Up to 50 mm in the central islands; and up to 30 mm in the southern islands.
27th October No Rainfall.
28th October Up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands.
29th October Up to 100 mm in the northern and up to 30 mm in central and southern islands.
30th October Up to 100 mm in the central and up to 50 mm in northern and southern islands.
31st October Up to 20 mm in the southern and up to 10 mm in northern and central islands.
 
Click Herefor detailed maps in pdf.

Monthly  and  Seasonal  Monitoring:
In October, Central islands received up to 200 mm rainfall above than normal rainfall for the season; Northern islands up to 150 mm; and Southern islands up to 50 mm. Northern islands received up to 600 mm of total rainfall; and Central and Southern islands up to 450 mm.
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Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
Click Here- To see monthly and seasonal monitoring pdf maps
Detailed regional charts are available in pdf for  Northern Central Southern
 

3.Predictions


Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:-  Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Herefor detailed maps in pdf.
 
Weekly Rainfall Forecast: According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands on November 4th and 5th. On the 6th, rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. On the 7th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. On the 8th and 9th, daily rainfall up to 40 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands.



 
Click Herefor detailed maps in pdf.
Image caption:-  Left: Total 6-day precipitation forecast
 














4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State 


PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI -October 18, 2019)

SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in some atmospheric variables show weak El Niño conditions, but this is attributed to intraseasonal variability and the collective assessment is for ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña.

Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
Click Herefor detailed maps in pdf.



 

 
INDIAN OCEAN STATE 

1 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives

MJO INDEX 

The MJO was significant in Phase 1 from Oct 14-17; and in Phase 2 from Oct 18-23. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2

Download Printable Report  (Part1 - Summary)- Click Here
Download Printable Report  (Part2 - Figures)- Click Here
 
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Maldives Climate Summary: Historical averages of rainfall and wind, Monitored daily rainfall for the last week, and Predictions for the next week and next season. Issued: 16th June 2019. Click Here  to Subscribe. 
 FECT Team - Lareef Zubair, Ruchira Lokuhetti, Prabodha Agalawatte, Chayana Gunathilake
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