Monitored:During February, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During last year the northern and southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm and the central Islands have an excess of 350 mm of rainfall. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 1.5 0C above normal. This is extremely warm.
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of daily rainfall in the entire country during 11th-13th March. On the 14th, up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week.
Contents and Links to Sections
Monthly Climatology: In March, northern and central islands receive average rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it is northwesterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases.
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||Up to 15 mm in the central islands.
||Up to 20 mm in the central islands.
||Up to 10 mm in the southern islands.
||Up to 50 mm in the central and southern islands.
||Up to 100 mm in the central; up to 50 mm in southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
||Up to 5 mm in the central islands.
|24th – 25th February
|26th – 27th February
||Up to 20 mm in the southern islands.
||Up to 5 mm in the southern islands.
Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:
IIn February, the whole country received up to 150 mm of total rainfall, which is normal for the season.
Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly Rainfall Forecast:
According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the entire country during 11th
March. On the 14th
, up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands. From 15th
, daily rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the central islands and up to 10 in northern islands. On the 17th
, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands.
Image caption:- Left: Total 6-day precipitation forecast
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - February 18, 2020)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for continuation of ENSO-neutral.
Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE
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1.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.
The MJO was significant in Phase 5 from Feb 8-11; in Phase 6 from Feb 12-16; and again, in Phase 5 from Feb 17-20. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2
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