Monitored: During July, southern parts of the country received rainfall below than is normal for the season by more than 50 mm; and central and southern islands received normal rainfall. The northern islands recorded the second highest rainfall for the period in past six years. The Southern Islands have an excess of 500 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average while the Northern Islands are having a deficit of 400 mm and Central islands a deficit of 100 mm. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm.
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of daily rainfall in the entire country during August 4th - 6th. On the 7th and 8th, rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in the rest of the country. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country next week.
Contents and Links to Sections
Monthly Climatology : In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.
||Up to 50 mm in the northern islands; up to 30 mm in the central; and up to 20 mm in the southern islands.
||Up to 30 mm in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central and southern islands.
|20th – 21st July
||Up to 5 mm in the central islands.
||Up to 5 mm in the northern islands.
||Up to 20 mm in the northern islands.
|26th July – 1st August
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Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:
In July, northern and central islands received normal rainfall for the season; and southern islands received up to 50 mm rainfall below than normal.
Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to to average rainfall in previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above average rainfall hatched in blue and below average hatched in brown.
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly Rainfall Forecast:
According to IMD GFS daily rainfall
up to 10 mm of is expected in the entire country during August 4th
. On the 7th
, rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in the rest of the country. On the 9th
, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the whole country On the 10th
, rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the southern islands and up to 20 mm in the rest of the country.
Image caption:- Left: Total 6 day precipitation forecast
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - July 19, 2019 )
SSTs in the east-central Pacific declined to ENSO-neutral levels during early July, but still above average. Temperature anomalies of subsurface waters were near-average. Patterns in the atmosphere showed mainly ENSO-neutral to borderline El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, possibly returning to weak El Niño by winter.
Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE
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1 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives
The MJO was significant in Phase 1 from Jul 1-13; and in again Phase 1 from Jul 16-21; and in Phase 2 on Jul 22. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.
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