Monitored:During January, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During last year the northern and southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm and the central Islands have an excess of 300 mm of rainfall. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm.
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire country on February 3rd. On the 4th, up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; up to 10 mm in central and southern islands. On the 5th, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the whole country. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week.
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In February, northern islands receive average rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it’s northwesterly.
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|17th- 22nd January
||Up to 10 mm in the central islands and islands.
||Up to 50 mm in the southern islands and up to 20 mm in central islands.
||Up to 50 mm in the southern islands.
||Up to 20 mm in the southern islands.
|27th – 31st January
Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:
In January, the whole country received normal rainfall. The central and southern islands received up to 100 mm of total rainfall; and northern islands up to 60 mm.
Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly Rainfall Forecast:
According to IMD GFS rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the entire country on February 3rd
. On the 4th
, up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; up to 10 mm in central and southern islands. On the 5th
, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the whole country. From 6th
, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands.
Image caption:- Left: Total 6-day precipitation forecast
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - January 21, 2020)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.
Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE
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1 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives
The MJO was significant in Phase 5 from Jan 11-14; in Phase 6 from Jan 15-19; and in Phase 7 from Jan 20-24. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.
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