Monitored: During August, northern and southern parts of the country received rainfall above than is normal for the season; and central islands received below normal rainfall. The Southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average while the Northern Islands are having a deficit of 375 mm and Central islands a deficit of 200 mm. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 0.5 0C above normal.
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of daily rainfall in the northern and central islands during September 3rd - 7th. On the 8th, rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country next week
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Monthly Climatology: In September islands in the northern half of the country receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.
||Up to 30 mm in the southern islands; and up to 20 mm in the central islands.
||Up to 20 mm in the northern and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central islands.
||Up to 20 mm in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands.
|21st – 24th August
||Up to 50 mm in the northern islands.
||Up to 30 mm in the northern and central islands.
||Up to 20 mm in the northern and central islands.
||Up to 50 mm in the northern and southern islands; up to 30 mm in the central islands.
||More than 150 mm in the northern islands; up to 50 mm in the southern islands; and up to 30 mm in central islands.
|30th – 31st August
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Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:
In August, northern and southern islands received slightly above than normal rainfall for the season; and central islands received up to 100 mm rainfall below than normal. The northern islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall; and central and southern islands up to 300 mm.
Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly Rainfall Forecast:
According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands during September 3rd
. On the 8th
, rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. On the 9th
, rainfall up to 40 mm of is expected in the southern islands and up to 10 mm in the rest of the country
Image caption:- Left: Total 6 day precipitation forecast
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - August 19, 2019)
The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended, as SSTs in the east-central Pacific cooled to ENSO-neutral levels during July. Patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no longer carrying an El Niño advisory,
Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE
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0.5 0C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.
The MJO was significant in Phase 1 from Aug 18-20, and in Phase 2 from Aug 21-22; and in Phase 3 on Aug 24-25. Usually, rainfall in the Maldives is augmented in
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