Tropical La Niña moisture continues, despite the event reaching its peak, as the 30-day SOI registers +15 as the event now begins to decay before resetting in Autumn.
Summer conditions show a warmer mean decile temperature for Qld and above average rain for NSW cotton-growing areas with one week of summer remaining;
The latest season model survey showing almost consensus for higher-than-normal odds for cooler temperatures across Eastern Australia, while rainfall favours central-eastern areas - from March to May 2021.
Australian rainfall (week ending 21 February 2021)
The Walker circulation (SOI) still favours La Niña atmospheric characteristics, now at +15. The 2020-21 La Niña has now peaked, and its influence will be reduced over the coming months as it resets this Autumn. The IOD has also peaked for 2020 and basin-wide warming sees the indicator stabilise back to zero. The SAM is neutral and unlikely to influence our climate in the coming few weeks. For more information on what the climatic indicators mean, click here.
2021 Summer rain deciles to date
A fantastic year for central and southern NSW growing areas but unfortunately more rain needed across SE Qld regions.
2021 3-month mean temperature deciles
Despite the reduced maximum temps this summer, when combined with min temps into mean deciles, the map below shows above average for Qld areas and central NSW achieving average temps.
Seasonal Model Survey (Mar-Apr-May)
Almost full model consensus for cooler and wetter climatic conditions as cotton crops approach picking.
Long-range climate driver outlook (16 Feb)
At this early stage, model guidance summary shows a neutral ENSO and slightly wetter (negative) Indian Ocean Dipole this coming winter.
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