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CottonInfo: Moisture Manager, 26 April 2021
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The CottonInfo Moisture Manager

In this edition:

Latest weather and climate news:

  • El Nino-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral and the majority of climate models suggesting it will remain so until September 2021.
  • Models are split on the phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole this month as model accuracy is generally lower at this time of year
  • Rain and temperature deciles have been cooler and wetter in central-eastern areas over the last three months with some NSW areas receiving rainfall in the top 10% of historical records.
  • The latest season model survey showing confidence slightly reduced from last month for our late Autumn early winter season - from May to July 2021, with models generally favouring normal climatic conditions
  • The latest east-coast water storage levels showing recent improvements from above-average catchment rainfall, with some parts of the northern MDB now at 100% capacity.

Australian rainfall (week ending 25 April 2021)

Rainfall maps courtesy: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp 

Summary of climate indicators

The Walker circulation (SOI) has retreated back to near zero in concert with SSTs in the Tropical Pacific. The 2020-21 La Niña has now decayed, and the outlook is for a neutral ENSO for 2021. The IOD is still neutral and basin-wide warming sees the indicator stable around zero before making its move in our winter season. The SAM is neutral and unlikely to influence our climate in the coming few weeks. For more information on what the climatic indicators mean, click here

Jan-Mar 2021 rain deciles 

A fantastic period for central and southern NSW growing areas. April has been a much better month for SE Qld areas that missed out so the next month decile map should improve for that region.

3-month mean temperature deciles

Daytime maximum temperatures virtually a mirror image of rainfall deciles through the last 3 months.

Seasonal Model Survey (May-Jun-Jul)

 
A neutral ENSO prediction seems to be flowing through to most models as average climatic conditions over the coming months.

Long-range climate driver outlook (16 Feb)


At this early stage, the model guidance summary shows a neutral ENSO and neutral / slightly wetter (negative) Indian Ocean Dipole favoured this coming winter.
 

MDB Water storage levels (14 April 2021)


Some dam storages have reached 100% (turquoise colours). Click through for the full MDBA report.
 

Fitzroy Valley  - Water storage level (15 April 2021)


Little change from last month for this catchment. Click on the link to go to the official Sunwater site.
 

CottonInfo Climate Youtube - new release!


Ever been confused by the MJO spider diagram, terminology and science? The CottonInfo production team has been busy over the last month to help define how the MJO impacts cotton growers. Click on the link to play this short 4-minute clip c/- CottonInfo YouTube channel.
 

Can't get enough climate and weather?

 
Each Friday, Ag Econ's team of climate analysts release a region-by-region summary of the coming weekly outlook, detailed analysis of climate conditions, expert commentary from global climatologists, the latest climate research findings, farmer climate stories, weather App reviews and ground-truthing seasonal forecasts with observations and much more. In the latest edition, we analyse 12 global model outputs for the coming 3-6 month period. Also in April, we discussed all things climate with Dr Lisa Goddard, Director IRI (US) including the ENSO outlook for 2021, managing climate risk in agriculture and decadal variability research findings. Visit https://www.agecon.com.au/farmer-forecast
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CottonInfo accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any material contained in this publication. Additionally, CottonInfo disclaims all liability to any person in respect of anything, and of the consequences of anything, done or omitted to be done by any such person in reliance, whether wholly or partly, on any information contained in this publication. Material included in this publication is made available on the understanding that CottonInfo is not providing professional advice. If you intend to rely on any information provided in this publication, you should obtain your own appropriate professional adviceHeader photo courtesy Janet Dampney.